Investment positives
We initiate coverage of Elion Energy Company (600277) with aBUY rating and TP of Rmb8.50, implying 32x 2017e P/E.
Why BUY rating?
Product price rises to drive clear earningsimprovement in 2017. We expect Elion’s net profit to rise169% and58% YoY in 2016 and 2017 as a turnaround in thecoal-chemical business (PVC etc.) and coal prices shouldsignificantly boost the main business.
Clean coal utilization technology to drive long-termgrowth. We expect the clean energy business to contributeRmb1.939bn revenue and Rmb263mn net profit in 2018.
Disposing of non-core assets to focus on mainbusiness; major shareholders’ stake increasedisplaying confidence.
How do we differ from the marketElion’s earnings maybeat expectations, as China continues to tighten policies on coalsector’s supply-side reform and environmental regulations oncoal utilization.
Potential catalysts: Price rises for PVC and coal; upsidesurprise in materialization of clean energy projects.
Financials and valuation
EPS is expected to be Rmb0.17, Rmb0.28 and Rmb0.38 in2016~2018, a CAGR of50%. Elion is trading at 25x/18x2017/18e P/E. Initiate with BUY and set TP at Rmb8.50(32x/22x 2017/18e P/E), implying 24% upside room.
Risks
Fluctuating product prices; safety in operation; disappointingpromotion of clean energy business.